We Interrupt This Program
The Martians landed just after eight o’clock on the evening
of October 30, 1938 in Grovers Mill, New Jersey and promptly incinerated its
residents with their heat rays. At least
that’s how it seemed to the six million people listening to Mercury Radio
Theater’s infamous broadcast adaptation of H. G. Wells’ classic novel War of the Worlds. The program began, harmlessly enough, with the
music of Ramon Raquello and his orchestra but was soon interrupted by news
bulletins about unexplained atmospheric changes, strange explosions on Mars, space
craft landing near farms, and eventually, by eye-witness accounts of the
murderous Martian conquest as it advanced amid plumes of poisonous gas through
futile defenses toward New York City.
Panic ensued.
Despite repeated disclaimers throughout the broadcast,
nearly a third of the listening audience thought the attack was real, according
to some estimates. People variously hid
in basements, readied weapons, or prayerfully knelt in churches anticipating the
end of the world.
The War of the World’s broadcast is more than a curiosity
from our past. It contains an important lesson
for marketers. The circumstances that transformed
Radio Theater into panic that night also empowered advertising for the last
century, but no more.
Well Connected to Mass Media, Poorly Connected to Each Other
A single radio broadcast could incite widespread panic
because people were well connected to mass media but poorly connected to each
other. At the time of the broadcast
nearly 80 percent of American homes had a radio while only 36 percent had a
telephone. This meant nearly everyone
could hear the gruesome reports dispatched from New Jersey, but few could
corroborate their validity. Without
other sources of information radio’s authority was absolute.
During the last century, one-way mass media technologies
were developed before and adopted more quickly than two-way interpersonal
communications. AM radio debuted in the
1920’s followed by television twenty years later. FM radio arrived in the 1960’s and the 70’s
produced cable TV and the VCR. By 1962
90 percent of American homes had a television and a radio, but it would be
almost ten more years before the same percentage homes also had a telephone!
By contrast, technologies that allow us to communicate with
each other like the cellular telephone, the pager, the fax machine, the
answering machine, the camcorder, message boards, the PC, digital cameras, and
the Internet are products of the last twenty five years. Innovations like VOIP, Instant Messaging,
Blogs, Twitter, video conferencing, and online social networks are more recent;
many of them emerging within the last five.
Another reason for mass media’s rapid adoption was its instant
utility. When people bought a radio or a
TV and switched it on, the broadcasters’ signals were already present. By contrast, interpersonal communications
devices like the telephone had no value until a person’s friends and family
also had them.
Not only did interpersonal communications lack instant
utility, they cost more too. Local TV
and radio signals arrived freely but a telephone call to a friend in another
town incurred long distance charges and those charges increased with distance. These differences rewarded people for
consuming free mass media but penalized them for connecting with their friends.
Communities of Convenience
When people are well connected to mass media but poorly
connected to each other, as they were for most of the last century, they tend
to organize by proximity into communities of convenience. Unable to find programming or relationships
that precisely match their interests, people settle for those that are
physically near. For most of the last
century people watched local television, read their local newspaper, and
listened to local radio. Their best
friend probably lived next door.
These circumstances produced the traditional mass
advertising model where brands blanketed metropolitan areas with advertising
monologues through mass media. DMA’s were
simply communities of convenience defined by the coverage limitations of the mass
media at their center.
This model worked wonderfully for the latter half of the
last century until two trends that began in the 1980’s tipped in the new
millennium.
Loosely Connected to Mass Media, Well Connected to Each
Other
Over the last twenty five years, technology spawned new
media vehicles whose specialized programming splintered audiences into ever-smaller
niches. During the decade of the sixties an advertiser
could reach 80 percent of all the women in America by running a single spot
simultaneously on the three television networks. A similar “roadblock” today would require
hundreds of channels at a prohibitive cost.
Expanding channel choices did not similarly expand people’s
range of interests. Between 1994 and 2003 the number of televisions channels
available to the typical American grew from 40 to 100 but the number of
channels they actually watched rose only from 10 to 14. So, while more channels increased consumption
slightly overall, individual audiences shrank.
As advertisers wrung their hands over media fragmentation
another equally important but less visible trend was changing the advertising
landscape; Consumers were connecting to each other on an unprecedented scale.
Between 1984 and 2006 cell phone subscribers in the United
States exploded from 340,000 to more than 233 million. Each month the average American spends 13-22
hours wirelessly talking with friends, relatives and business associates. Americans sent a trillion text messages last
year and that figure is increasing at 154% per month.
Blogs, virtually nonexistent five years ago, number more
than 57 million today and the number is doubling every 230 days according to
Technorati. Globally, there are 1.3
million new posts per day—about 15 per second.
Thanks to blogs and the search engines that find them, anyone can have a
global platform for expressing their ideas.
Eighty four percent of Americans are in online
communities. MySpace swelled from two
million members in 2004 to more than 160 million today and that figure doesn’t
include members of Facebook, Orkut, Bebo, Hi5, Eon, LinkedIn, Plaxo, and the
other social networking websites linking friends, students, and business
associates through text, photos, and video.
We video conference on the Internet, share photos from cell
phones, express creativity on YouTube, collaborate on wikis, and communicate
moment to moment with IM, Chat, Twitter, Voice Mail, MMS, faxes, and email.
These changes matter to advertisers because much of the
attention people once reserved for commercial media, they now devote to each
other. More significantly, this shift
has altered the way people organize with each other and it is this change, more
than any other, which has altered the marketing landscape.
A New Way for a New Day
The circumstances that enabled mass marketing in past
decades are reversed. Today people are loosely
connected to mass media but well connected to each other. Under these conditions people organize by
affinity into communities of interest. They can now find the programming and
relationships that precisely match their interests and connect to them.
“Homophily,” a term meaning, “love of same,” describes
people’s natural tendency to gather with similar others. Impossible previously, these days the
Internet lets people find and build community with others who share their
passions and interests; whether religious beliefs, political leanings, or passions
for a hobby. Once people find similar
others, cheap interpersonal communications technologies help them sustain those
relationships over time and great distance. In this new world markets are
defined by people’s passions and interests not media coverage maps or even
geography. Atlanta is no longer a
market. Atlanta is merely a city. Interests like a love for hiking or Ty food
or the Green Bay Packers, now define markets.
What’s more, the connected consumer is more than
advertising’s target; he or she is also a conduit through which brand messages
flow.
Interest-Centric Planning
For decades most planning has been media centric. Decide a media mix, select some DMA’s, and
run your ad campaign. That’s fine when
people organize by proximity, but less effective when consumers organize around
interests. Today brands must identify
affiliation networks whose interests identify them as likely customers and
connect with them first.
Monologue vs. Trialogue
In this new era, advertisers must employ a “trialogue” where brands connect to
consumers, consumers can contact brands, and consumers are encouraged to
communicate with each other.
Passive to Active
People used to watch whatever came their way. Now
they seek out precisely what they like when they want it. This requires brands to establish a permanent presence
like a website and a blog because you don’t know when people may be searching.
Centralized to Decentralized Distribution
Time was when advertisers spoke to everyone through centralized media. The advertiser was the hub. Now there is no hub. Everyone speaks to everyone else. The
gatekeeper is gone.
Consumer is a Channel
Every person is a station broadcasting to an audience of friends, family, and
coworkers via email, telephone, Instant Message and other new technologies. Each has a direct audience numbering in the
hundreds and increasing to millions just three degrees away. But be careful. Don’t trespass on interpersonal communications technologies. The cell phone belongs to the consumer, not
the advertiser. The
question isn’t “how can you place your ad on their phone?” The question is, “What will cause them to voluntarily add
your brand to their programming?”
Finally, to thrive in the new marketing environment, you must recognize and accommodate a few other changes.
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Then
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Now
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Centralized Message Distribution: Few-to-Many
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Decentralized Message Distribution: Many-to-Many
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Media-Centric Planning: What media shall we buy?
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Consumer Centric Planning: Which people must we reach?
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Passive Consumption: Consumer is the target
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Active Participation: Consumer is a channel
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Monologue: Brands preach at “consumers.”
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Trialogue: Brands to people, people to brands, and people to each
other.
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Geographic Borders: Markets are defined geographically.
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Ideological Borders: Markets are defined ideologically.
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Company Controls the Message: Brand perceptions were formed by
advertising messages through institutional media the company controlled. No
one else had a voice.
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Consumer Controls the Message: Consumers speak for the brand by
sharing their experiences through social media. Brands merely influence the message by
controlling the experience they give consumers.
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