Things are changing. What's more, the rate at which they are changing is faster than it's ever been. It might be a good time to pause and rethink areas of life that we take for granted.
To understand what I mean, consider the history of visual entertainment.
The Greeks invented theater in the 5th century. Live actors playing their parts endured as the primary form of theatrical entertainment from 400 AD until April 23, 1896 when the first movie was projected onto the wall of the Koster and Bial's Music Hall on 34th Street in New York.
The first Blockbuster video store opened in Brooklyn, New York on November 5, 1985 and for the next two decades we rented movies from stores and watched them at home.
Netflix launched in 1997 changing the model yet again. Instead of driving to the store to rent a movie, Netflix shipped the movies we rented to our homes. Then, in 2007, and thanks largely to adequate broadband penetration, Netflix began allowing its subscribers to stream unlimited movies. No more physical product at all. We borrowed electrons instead.
So, let's review.
- Plays dominated for almost 1500 years--about 20 lifetimes!
- Movie theaters dominated for almost 100 years--about 2.5x the average career span.
- Movie rental stores dominated for about 20 years--about half the average career span.
- Movies physically shipped to your home dominated for almost 10 years--about on quarter the average career span.
- Movies streamed via the Internet have just begun and will last for, well, we don't know how long, but given the trend is 5 years an outrageous guess?
My grandfather graduated with his engineering degree from Michigan State University and went to work for Dow Chemical where he spent his entire working life before retiring around age 65. But today, entire industries come and go in less time than it takes to earn a bachelor's degree. What happened to carburetor manufacturers? Where, pray tell, is the Iomega Zip Drive?
Think about it, some business is booming when you enter college and gone before you graduate. And to think some of my friends had a hard time choosing their major when I was in school. Imagine the difficulty now.
The Impact
The increasing rate of change affects more than movies. You can see something close to this model at work almost everywhere. And it's creating some real problems. No matter the industry, the earlier model is also the one that lasted for the longest period of time. This...
- Tricks many into confusing longevity for permanence, causing them to stop expecting change and take their eyes off the horizon.
- Leads us to invest lots of time and resources into the earliest models. This makes them harder to abandon. Many start thinking it is their job to preserve the status quo rather than understand and adapt to change. History is littered with corpses of those martyred for that futile cause.
- Finally, it may cause us to over estimate how long the new model will last which, in turn, can lead us to repeat the first two mistakes.
What Should Change?
So, what are those things we take for granted that should be rethought in light of this?
How about college? In the old model you would graduate from high school, get a bachelor's degree in your chosen field, enter the work force and spend about 40 years working before you retired. But if industries come and go in five years, does that model still make sense? Should we begin to explore alternatives?
- Education/Work Cycles: Earn a liberal arts degree and a brief specialization before entering the work force for ten years. Then, return to college, revising your skills to better adapt to the changed work environment. Repeat this cycle four to six times over the course of your career. Each time you would work fewer years before returning to school. Instead of retirement packages, employers would fund "re-education" accounts designed to help pay for school and living expenses when the employee returned for another round of schooling.
- Combing Education with Work: Rather than paying tens of thousands to universities before repaying student loans with the salary from your first job, why not design training into entry-level work roles. Employers could pay reduced salaries to workers-in-training and the employee would still enjoy a net increase compared to the high cost of college. Accreditation programs could ensure proper training. Employers would compete based on pay, work environment, and also their ability to educate their people.
What do you think we should reconsider in light of the rapid rate of change? Spread the fire. GS